About Peter J. Morgan
Peter J. Morgan is senior consulting economist and vice chair of research at ADBI.The next steps for meeting nationally determined contributions after COP26
Reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHG) must be achieved in the coming decades to avoid catastrophic global temperature rises. Limiting global warming to within 1.5°C will require rapid, far-reaching, and unprecedented changes in all sectors. GHG emissions in Asia and the Pacific now account for over 50% of the world’s total.
The tip of the iceberg for COVID-19 cases in developing Asia?
The number of COVID-19 cases in many Asian developing countries is surprisingly low, but this may simply reflect inadequate levels of testing. The high correlation between rates of testing and per capita GDP strongly suggests that lower-income countries face a number of barriers to carrying out adequate testing. This raises the risk of rapid increases in infection rates in the future and points to the need for support for additional testing, as well as for increases in medical spending and general fiscal measures.
T20 and realizing education for all in the Digital Age
Education is a key driver for sustainable development (UNESCO 2018). However, the goal of realizing education for all in the Digital Age faces two major challenges. First, many countries and economies are still not ensuring quality education for all. Millions of children and youth still lack the necessary tools to realize their potential amid economic, political, and social strife. Second, with the emergence of the fourth Industrial Revolution and the growing use of automation, big data, and artificial intelligence, human labor is being substituted increasingly by machines or algorithms.
A new global and regional financial architecture to address global shocks
In the postwar period, the global economic and financial architecture was dominated by the advanced economies in the West. They designed the international monetary system, international development financing frameworks, and global trade liberalization schemes. They also dominated the leadership of key global institutions related to economic and financial stability, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and, more recently, the Financial Stability Board (FSB).
Financial literacy and savings: Evidence from Cambodia and Viet Nam
Financial literacy has gained an important position in the policy agenda of many countries, and the importance of collecting informative, reliable data on the levels of financial literacy across adult populations has been widely recognized (OECD/INFE 2015a). At their summit in Los Cabos in 2012, G20 leaders endorsed the High-Level Principles on National Strategies for Financial Education developed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development International Network on Financial Education (OECD/INFE), thereby acknowledging the importance of coordinated policy approaches to financial education (G20 2012).
Costs of expanded public pension coverage in emerging Asia
The fiscal burden of public pensions in most emerging Asian economies is relatively small, reflecting relatively young populations and limited coverage of the retired-age population in public pension programs. Nonetheless, these conditions are likely to change dramatically in the coming decades. First, many Asian economies will face rapidly aging populations, which will raise pension and other old-age-related spending substantially. Second, as economies develop, political pressures to expand the coverage of public pensions and raise the level of pension benefits relative to income will likely increase.
Assessing policies to promote financial inclusion, regulation, and education in emerging Asia
Financial inclusion has been receiving increasing attention for its potential to contribute to economic and financial development while fostering more inclusive growth and greater income equality. There are numerous arguments in favor of increasing financial inclusion, and a large body of evidence shows that increased financial inclusion can significantly reduce poverty and boost shared prosperity. Greater access to financial services by households can help smooth consumption, ease cash shortages, and increase savings for retirement and other needs, although the evidence on microfinance is less positive.
Impact of a possible growth slowdown of the People’s Republic of China on emerging Asia: A general equilibrium analysis
With its rapid economic growth and integration into the global economy over the last 3 decades, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has emerged as a major economic power and an important source of growth for the world economy. Now it is the second-largest economy at market exchange rates and the largest exporter in the world. In Asia, the PRC’s role as a growth pole is even more prominent. Over the last 10 years, spurred by strong processing exports and domestic demand, the PRC’s imports from Asia in US dollar terms have increased at an average annual rate of 9%. Strong demand from the PRC also supported prices of commodities exported by Asian and other emerging economies.
Mortgage lending and financial stability in Asia
Domestic banking crises often originate in the real estate sector. Therefore, one might conclude that mortgage lending is negative for financial stability. However, in normal (noncrisis) periods, mortgage lending may actually contribute to financial stability. This is because mortgage loans have different risk properties from other bank assets such as commercial loans, so having some share of mortgage loans in a bank’s portfolio tends to diversify the risk of that portfolio. Also, because individual mortgage loans are small, they do not contribute much to systemic risk, except in periods of real estate bubbles (IMF 2006).
Loan-to-value policy as a macroprudential tool: The case of residential mortgage loans in Asia
The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 underlined the need for central banks and financial regulators to take a macroprudential perspective on financial risk, i.e., to monitor and regulate the buildup of systemic financial risk in the economy as a whole, as opposed to simply monitoring the condition of individual financial institutions (microprudential regulation). This has been highlighted in numerous reports, e.g., G30 (2009), IMF (2009), Brunnermeier et al. (2009), and TdLG (2009). The regulatory response to this in advanced economies, under the guidance of the G20 and the Financial Stability Board, has tended to focus on strengthening the liability side of banks’ balance sheets by enforcing stricter capital adequacy requirements, including the introduction of a countercyclical buffer and the introduction of liquidity requirements (see, e.g., BIS 2010a).
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