John Beirne

About John Beirne

John Beirne is a research fellow at ADBI.
Author Archive | John Beirne
Economics, Finance sector development

Should emerging Asia worry about a “taper tantrum” post-COVID-19?

Should emerging Asia worry about a “taper tantrum” post-COVID-19?

With an improved growth outlook in the United States (US) in the second half of 2021 as the economy recovers from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in part related to the substantial fiscal stimulus in the US introduced at the start of 2021, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is on course to slow down its asset purchases program, or so-called quantitative easing (QE) tapering. This has sparked fears of sharp capital outflows from emerging market economies (EMEs) and currency depreciations, as occurred during the “taper tantrum” episode of May 2013. At that time, emerging markets reacted abruptly to the announcement by the Fed that it may wind down its quantitative easing program, signalling tighter monetary policy (Sahay et al.

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Economics, Finance sector development

Foreign holdings of local currency bonds: A double-edged sword for emerging Asia

Foreign holdings of local currency bonds: A double-edged sword for emerging Asia
Local currency bond markets (LCBMs) have continued to develop in emerging Asian economies since the early 2000s, with foreign investor participation rising markedly since the global financial crisis of 2007–2008. LCBMs help to enhance domestic financial stability by enabling governments and companies to borrow in domestic currency.

Climate change, Finance sector development

Which financing sources matter for private investment in renewable energy in Asia?

Which financing sources matter for private investment in renewable energy in Asia?
The mobilization of climate finance is critical for limiting global warming to within 1.5°C and preventing catastrophic climate change (IPCC 2018). Annual green investments totaling $1.5 trillion are needed (United Nations 2017). Despite the falling cost of renewable energy technologies, energy investments remain dominated by investments in fossil fuels. In Asia and the Pacific, annual investments fell after 2017 and until 2020 remained below the 2017 level.

Economics, Finance sector development Economics, Governance and public sector management, Health, Social development and protection

Toward a robust economic recovery from COVID-19 in Asia and the Pacific

Toward a robust economic recovery from COVID-19 in Asia and the Pacific
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has been a truly global shock to public health, causing one of the most severe global economic downturns since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Against this context, the 2020 ADBI Annual Conference brought together leading academics, think tank researchers, and policy makers to discuss the impacts of COVID-19 and its policy implications, with a focus on Asia and the Pacific.

Economics, Finance sector development, Health

COVID-19 and policy responses through the lens of global asset markets and capital flows

COVID-19 and policy responses through the lens of global asset markets and capital flows
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and the resulting lockdowns have led to an unprecedented economic contraction and turbulence in financial markets, which initially caused the largest ever outflows of portfolio capital from emerging market economies (EMEs). Globally, governments have responded to the crisis with substantial fiscal stimulus packages. In addition, central banks around the world have eased monetary policies, with many EME central banks also implementing quantitative easing (QE) measures for the first time.

Climate change, Economics, Environment, Finance sector development

Exploring the link between climate change and sovereign risk

Exploring the link between climate change and sovereign risk
Climate change can have a material impact on sovereign risk through direct and indirect effects on public finances. In addition, climate change raises the cost of capital in climate vulnerable countries and threatens debt sustainability. Governments must climate-proof their economies and public finances or potentially face an ever-worsening spiral of climate vulnerability and unsustainable debt burdens.

Economics, Finance sector development

Characterizing financial cycles: Are emerging markets different?

Characterizing financial cycles: Are emerging markets different?
A feature of the academic literature on financial cycles relates to the fact that it almost exclusively focuses on selected advanced economies, the findings of which may not necessarily hold for emerging economies. Global capital flow developments and monetary policies in advanced economies mean that financial cycle dynamics may differ substantially in emerging economies, not only in terms of turning points but also with regard to which asset market cycle best characterizes the financial cycle.

Economics

Macroeconomic stabilization in the digital age: What should policy makers be aware of?

Macroeconomic stabilization in the digital age: What should policy makers be aware of?
The rise of the digital age has created challenges for policy makers around the globe in managing their economies. Early work on this issue by Cecchetti (2002) noted that macroeconomic management becomes more complex in an environment of digitalization given shifting trend productivity and difficulties in estimating potential output.