The decades leading to the current global economic turmoil saw many developing countries attempt to pursue the East Asian development model, which is widely perceived to have been export-led. Is such growth possible in the post-crisis world with shrinking global imbalances? Historical data may provide useful clues. Our paper, titled "Can Asia Sustain an Export-Led Growth Strategy in the Aftermath of the Global Crisis? An Empirical Exploration", finds that Asian growth in the pre-crisis period was significantly correlated with the proportion of their manufactured exports that were sold in industrialized country markets. Given this evidence, Asian exports to other developing countries may not be good substitutes for their exports to developed countries. The policy implication is clear: a deceleration of exports to industrialized countries may limit prospects for post-crisis growth even if exports to other developing countries pick up the slack. Asian policy makers should, therefore, be more willing than ever to experiment with new paths to technological catch up.

On 11 December 2011 the People’s Republic of China (PRC) marked the 10th anniversary of its entry into the World Trade Organization. The PRC’s trade statistics over the past decade have been impressive: despite the fragile global recovery, its exports surged 31% to reach $1.6 trillion in 2010, more than six times the value in 2000. For the first time, the PRC overtook Germany to become the world’s largest exporter. The PRC’s high-tech exports were valued at $490 billion and accounted for 31% of its total exports in 2010. A report from European Commission in 2009 concluded that the PRC had surpassed the United States, Japan and the 27 states of the European Union to emerge as the world’s largest high-tech exporter. According to statistics from the US Department of Commerce, in 2010 the PRC even ran a $94 billion surplus in advanced technology products to the US, an undisputed world leader in technology innovation.