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Finance sector development

Spillover effects of unconventional monetary policy on Asia and the Pacific

Spillover effects of unconventional monetary policy on Asia and the Pacific
On August 2015, the People’s Bank of China devalued the yuan with the aim of appreciating the currency against the US dollar. On October 2015, the European Central Bank signaled the intention to pump more liquidity into the eurozone economy. On October 2015, the Federal Reserve postponed its intention to conduct tapering on its monetary policy. Over the last 24 months, the dollar has been up nearly 10% against a major currency index of its trading partners. Emerging market economies have been facing disappointing growth, more volatile foreign exchange rates, and low inflation due to the slowdown in economic activities and the sharp decline in commodity prices. Moreover, the growth of debt in emerging countries has increased dramatically compared to advanced economies. Since 2009, the average level of private credit as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) has increased from around 75% to 125%. These stylized facts highlight deep uncertainties and downside risks in Asia. Measures of regional financial integration, capital market deepening, and emerging market banking systems must be carefully evaluated.

Economics, Finance sector development

Budgeting data gaps and fiscal policy debate

Budgeting data gaps and fiscal policy debate
Singapore has regularly reported considerable surpluses in its annual fiscal budget. Budget surpluses have been an essential part of the country’s growth strategy (Asher et al. 2015) as they are perceived to provide a signal of sound public sector financial management to foreign investors, key stakeholders in Singapore’s development planning. Budget surpluses also enable the corporate income tax rate to be kept among the lowest in the world, at 17%. Other policies—such as having a relatively large inflow of foreign workers that depresses at the lower end and almost no taxes on most forms of capital gains and domestic interest income—contribute to the high share of capital income in national income at around 55%, with labor’s share at around 40%–42%, in contrast to the pattern in OECD countries.

Finance sector development

4 ways to boost SME access to finance from commercial banks in ASEAN

Seamstresses working for a small garment-making business in Indonesia
Concerns about moderating economic growth and rising income inequality in ASEAN economies have brought small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) into the policy limelight. Arguing that SMEs have significant potential for creating jobs, some commentators are suggesting a host of industrial policies such as financial subsidies and local content rules to promote SMEs. However, government failure may result from heavy-handed state intervention for SMEs.

Finance sector development, Social development and protection

Bringing financial services to the PRC’s poor will boost poverty reduction

A woman in Guangdong with a wagon load of harvested crops
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has achieved remarkable economic growth, but there are a number of serious imbalances between coastal and inland regions, and between urban and rural areas. The government wants to help bridge this gap by developing inclusive finance tools.

Finance sector development

Mortgage lending and financial stability in Asia

Mortgage Lending and Financial Stability in Asia
Domestic banking crises often originate in the real estate sector. Therefore, one might conclude that mortgage lending is negative for financial stability. However, in normal (noncrisis) periods, mortgage lending may actually contribute to financial stability. This is because mortgage loans have different risk properties from other bank assets such as commercial loans, so having some share of mortgage loans in a bank’s portfolio tends to diversify the risk of that portfolio. Also, because individual mortgage loans are small, they do not contribute much to systemic risk, except in periods of real estate bubbles (IMF 2006).

Finance sector development, Industry and trade

Japanese banks’ appetite for economic partnership agreements

Japanese banks’ appetite for economic partnership agreements
When viewed through the lens of trade deals negotiated with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Australia, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Japan has shown recent willingness to engage in global free trade. However, is there any indication that these deals are striking a chord where it matters most, with Japan’s services sector, which comprises 70% of its economic activity?

Finance sector development

Loan-to-value policy as a macroprudential tool: The case of residential mortgage loans in Asia

Loan-to-value policy as a macroprudential tool: The case of residential mortgage loans in Asia
The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 underlined the need for central banks and financial regulators to take a macroprudential perspective on financial risk, i.e., to monitor and regulate the buildup of systemic financial risk in the economy as a whole, as opposed to simply monitoring the condition of individual financial institutions (microprudential regulation). This has been highlighted in numerous reports, e.g., G30 (2009), IMF (2009), Brunnermeier et al. (2009), and TdLG (2009). The regulatory response to this in advanced economies, under the guidance of the G20 and the Financial Stability Board, has tended to focus on strengthening the liability side of banks’ balance sheets by enforcing stricter capital adequacy requirements, including the introduction of a countercyclical buffer and the introduction of liquidity requirements (see, e.g., BIS 2010a).

Economics, Finance sector development

Currency arrangements in the Pacific—time to re-think?

Currency arrangements in the Pacific—time to re-think?
The Pacific developing member countries (DMCs) of the Asian Development Bank are a heterogeneous group of economies with different levels of economic development and economic size. However, when it comes to choosing an optimal exchange rate, the Pacific DMCs face similar challenges. All of the Pacific economies are relatively small and have underdeveloped financial and exchange rate markets.

Finance sector development

3 ways to serve Asia and the Pacific’s ‘unbanked’

Analyzing microfinance loans is one way to collect “alternative data” on consumer debt levels and ability to repay. An ADB-supported microfinance institution in Uzbekistan. Photo by Eric Sales
Every time I stop and withdraw cash from an ATM or use my credit card to buy something online, I wonder how many people in Asia have access to such services. In fact, these simple transactions are beyond the reach of 45% of adults in East Asia and the Pacific alone. They are excluded from the formal financial system and will remain so until they open a bank account.

Finance sector development

“Grexit” and yuan devaluation could put significant pressure on Asian currency pegs

Grexit and yuan devaluation could put significant pressure on Asian currency pegs
Already driving a housing bubble in all major Asian cities from Seoul to Jakarta, significant hot money inflows are what Hong Kong, China and Singapore seek to avoid. However, Greece’s exit from the eurozone coupled with subsequent quantitative easing by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to jump-start flagging growth could quickly exacerbate this Asian dynamic.