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Economics

Uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy and its transmission to emerging economies: Evidence from Twitter

Uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy and its transmission to emerging economies: evidence from Twitter
If the United States Federal Reserve tightens or eases monetary conditions, this impacts emerging economies. Over the years since the global financial crisis, a second type of spillover has emerged: spillovers stemming from the uncertainty about future monetary policy. Uncertainty spillovers exist above and beyond those stemming from specific policy steps. It is the uncertainty about the likely course of monetary policy that led investors to adjust their portfolios, thus leading to side effects on emerging markets.

Economics

The effect of push/pull factors on the distribution of capital flows into Asia

The effect of pushpull factors on the distribution of capital flows into Asia
Earlier literature examined determinants of international capital flows especially during the period of high and persistent capital inflows to emerging economies during 2009–2013. The literature mainly identified the push and pull factors and explained how these factors affect the capital flows into emerging Asia “on average.” In other words, the literature calculated the effects of these factors “on the mean” of the distribution of capital flows.

Economics

The pattern of capital flows into Asia in the last decade

The pattern of capital flows into Asia in the last decade
Looking at the varying patterns of the capital flows into Asia in the last decade, the period after the taper tantrum on 21 May 2013 until 31 October 2015 is of particular interest from both global and local perspectives.

Economics

Spillover effects of quantitative easing on the Asian credit market and policy options

Spillover effects of quantitative easing on the Asian credit market and policy options
One of the most significant new developments in the global post-global financial crisis (GFC) economy is the enormous asset purchase programs implemented by central banks in the industrial world to stimulate their economies. Widely known as quantitative easing (QE) programs, their impact has been substantial.

Economics

Asia growth pessimism is not warranted

Asia growth pessimism is not warranted
A gloomy outlook is enveloping the world’s economies. There are concerns too that countries are failing to sufficiently focus on long term policy responses to reverse the decline in global growth. Some argue that the global growth slowdown may be permanent, highlighting the danger of a period of chronically low growth, or what economists term “secular stagnation.”

Economics

Global economic dynamics and Kazakhstan’s challenges in public financial management

Global economic dynamics and Kazakhstan’s challenges in public financial management
As a highly globally integrated, resource-rich, upper-middle income country, Kazakhstan has been facing significant challenges in the current global environment. Kazakhstan’s major challenges include managing its public finances to preserve fiscal stability and generating broad-based economic growth.

Economics

Structural reforms to sustain Asia’s growth

Structural reforms to sustain Asia's growth
Economic growth in both developing and advanced economies has slowed since the global financial crisis. Developing Asia’s growth also moderated after the crisis, to a large extent driven by the slowdown in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The region’s economy expanded on average 7.6% annually during 2001–2010, but growth slowed to an annual average of 6.5% during 2011–2015. ADB is projecting further deceleration to 5.7% in each 2016 and 2017.

Economics

Impact of a possible growth slowdown of the People’s Republic of China on emerging Asia: A general equilibrium analysis

Impact of a possible growth slowdown of the People’s Republic of China on emerging Asia: a general equilibrium analysis
With its rapid economic growth and integration into the global economy over the last 3 decades, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has emerged as a major economic power and an important source of growth for the world economy. Now it is the second-largest economy at market exchange rates and the largest exporter in the world. In Asia, the PRC’s role as a growth pole is even more prominent. Over the last 10 years, spurred by strong processing exports and domestic demand, the PRC’s imports from Asia in US dollar terms have increased at an average annual rate of 9%. Strong demand from the PRC also supported prices of commodities exported by Asian and other emerging economies.

Economics

Kuroda should rethink the quest for 2 percent inflation

Kuroda should rethink the quest for 2 percent inflation
The Bank of Japan had a difficult start into 2016. The latest data shows that inflation in the last quarter of 2015 was lower than expected. Furthermore, doubts are increasing about the recovery of the economy. At the end of January, BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda surprised markets by announcing negative interest rates for certain commercial bank deposits at the BOJ. On March 1 Japan started to sell government bonds with a yield below zero. Market observers expect even bolder steps later this year.

Economics, Finance sector development

Budgeting data gaps and fiscal policy debate

Budgeting data gaps and fiscal policy debate
Singapore has regularly reported considerable surpluses in its annual fiscal budget. Budget surpluses have been an essential part of the country’s growth strategy (Asher et al. 2015) as they are perceived to provide a signal of sound public sector financial management to foreign investors, key stakeholders in Singapore’s development planning. Budget surpluses also enable the corporate income tax rate to be kept among the lowest in the world, at 17%. Other policies—such as having a relatively large inflow of foreign workers that depresses at the lower end and almost no taxes on most forms of capital gains and domestic interest income—contribute to the high share of capital income in national income at around 55%, with labor’s share at around 40%–42%, in contrast to the pattern in OECD countries.