About John Beirne
John Beirne is vice-chair of research and a senior research fellow at ADBI.Should emerging Asia worry about a “taper tantrum” post-COVID-19?
With an improved growth outlook in the United States (US) in the second half of 2021 as the economy recovers from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in part related to the substantial fiscal stimulus in the US introduced at the start of 2021, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is on course to slow down its asset purchases program, or so-called quantitative easing (QE) tapering.
Foreign holdings of local currency bonds: A double-edged sword for emerging Asia
Local currency bond markets (LCBMs) have continued to develop in emerging Asian economies since the early 2000s, with foreign investor participation rising markedly since the global financial crisis of 2007–2008. LCBMs help to enhance domestic financial stability by enabling governments and companies to borrow in domestic currency.
Which financing sources matter for private investment in renewable energy in Asia?
The mobilization of climate finance is critical for limiting global warming to within 1.5°C and preventing catastrophic climate change (IPCC 2018). Annual green investments totaling $1.5 trillion are needed (United Nations 2017). Despite the falling cost of renewable energy technologies, energy investments remain dominated by investments in fossil fuels. In Asia and the Pacific, annual investments fell after 2017 and until 2020 remained below the 2017 level.
Do persistent current account imbalances hamper regional and global growth?
Current account surpluses have persisted in a number of Asian and European economies throughout the global financial crisis and thereafter. Along with Germany, Japan has a decades-long history of recording current account surpluses. Due to rapid improvements in the competitiveness of its manufacturing sector, Japan has almost continuously recorded trade surpluses since the mid-1960s, and as a result, record current account surpluses (Shirakawa 2011).
Toward a robust economic recovery from COVID-19 in Asia and the Pacific
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has been a truly global shock to public health, causing one of the most severe global economic downturns since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Against this context, the 2020 ADBI Annual Conference brought together leading academics, think tank researchers, and policy makers to discuss the impacts of COVID-19 and its policy implications, with a focus on Asia and the Pacific.
COVID-19 and policy responses through the lens of global asset markets and capital flows
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and the resulting lockdowns have led to an unprecedented economic contraction and turbulence in financial markets, which initially caused the largest ever outflows of portfolio capital from emerging market economies (EMEs). Globally, governments have responded to the crisis with substantial fiscal stimulus packages. In addition, central banks around the world have eased monetary policies, with many EME central banks also implementing quantitative easing (QE) measures for the first time.
Exploring the link between climate change and sovereign risk
Climate change can have a material impact on sovereign risk through direct and indirect effects on public finances. In addition, climate change raises the cost of capital in climate vulnerable countries and threatens debt sustainability. Governments must climate-proof their economies and public finances or potentially face an ever-worsening spiral of climate vulnerability and unsustainable debt burdens.
Characterizing financial cycles: Are emerging markets different?
A feature of the academic literature on financial cycles relates to the fact that it almost exclusively focuses on selected advanced economies, the findings of which may not necessarily hold for emerging economies. Global capital flow developments and monetary policies in advanced economies mean that financial cycle dynamics may differ substantially in emerging economies, not only in terms of turning points but also with regard to which asset market cycle best characterizes the financial cycle.
Macroeconomic stabilization in the digital age: What should policy makers be aware of?
The rise of the digital age has created challenges for policy makers around the globe in managing their economies. Early work on this issue by Cecchetti (2002) noted that macroeconomic management becomes more complex in an environment of digitalization given shifting trend productivity and difficulties in estimating potential output.
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